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MARKET INSIGHT POST

Q4-2022 Minneapolis-St. Paul Office Market Update

Q4-2022 Minneapolis-St Paul Office Market Report

Forte Principal, Jim Jetland, lends insight to the Twin Cities office market report recently released by MNCAR/REDI.

 

The Twin Cities office market continues to be challenged due to a few factors, but the most impactful factor is the work from home concept. While more workers are finding their way back into the office more frequently, many companies have excess space which is demonstrated by the increase of sublease space from 3.7M square feet to 4.5M square feet, adding to the available inventory. As leases expire, it is expected that many companies will attempt to reduce their existing office footprint, which will continue the trend of increased vacancy.

Not all news is bleak in the office market, as some buildings have benefitted from the concept of a “flight to quality”.  More tenants are concerned with locating to higher quality buildings with better locations and more amenities. One trend being played out is when companies relocate, they commit to less space but in a more expensive, higher quality building with hopes of luring more employees back to the office.

 

Q4-2022 Office Market Update

ECONOMIC OVERVIEW:
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the unemployment rate for the Mpls-St Paul metropolitan statistical area (MSA) decreased 30 basis points to 1.9% for November 2022 from 2.2% for November 2021. The unemployment rate for the US was at 3.6% in November 2022 down from 4.2% last year. State of Minnesota unemployment rate was 2.3%. The Mpls-St Paul MSA saw an increase in job growth as well as an increase in office job growth in professional, financial and information with 19,800 during the same period.
MARKET OVERVIEW:
The Mpls-St Paul office market, consisting of 129 msf of space in seven counties across the metro saw (546,900) sf negative absorption for Q4 2022 and shows an overall vacancy rate of 16.1% for all properties. This quarter showed (92,700) sf of direct negative absorption while subleases accounted for (454,000) sf negative absorption. Multi-tenant only properties posted 20.4% vacancy with 122,082 sf positive absorption during Q4 2022 of which 256,578 sf positive absorption was for direct space and (134,000) sf negative absorption was for subleases. During Q4 2022 there were 15 construction projects throughout the market totaling 846,000. Thirteen properties have been delivered YTD with 869,000 sf.  
MPLS-ST. PAUL AREA EMPLOYMENT STATS:
Mpls-St. Paul Area Employment Stats
MARKET HIGHLIGHTS:
During Q4 2022 the market experienced over 1.2 msf of leasing activity in 311 transactions. Year-over-Year the vacancy rate for multi-tenant direct Class A properties has increased from 14.3% Q4 2021 to 17.0% Q4 2022. For direct leasing Mpls CBD markets posted (89,000) sf negative absorption, the suburban markets posted (76,000) sf negative absorption and St Paul CBD gained 73,000 sf positive absorption.
ABSORPTION & VACANCY RATE
(Multi and Single Tenant)
Q4 Office Market Report
MARKET STATISTICS BY BUILDING CLASS
(Multi and Single Tenant)
Market Stats by Building Class
MARKET STATISTICS BY MARKET

(Direct Multi and Single Tenant)

Market Statistic by Market
Market Statistic by Market Cont.
VACANCY RATES

(Direct Multi and Single Tenant)

Vacancy Rates
Vacancy Rates Cont.
Q4 Office Market Report
VACANCY RATES BY BUILDING CLASS

(Multi and Single Tenant)

Vacancy Rate by Building Class
LEASE RATES BY MARKET

(Direct Multi and Single Tenant FSG)

Lease Rates by Market
Lease Rates by Market Cont.
Q4 Office Market Report
MARKET MAP
Q4 Office Market Report

Office Advisory Experts

Jim Jetland, SIOR

Jim Jetland, SIOR

Principal

Nancy Powell

Nancy Powell

Vice President

Katie Trevena

Katie Trevena

Vice President

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